Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Quake Finds Tsunami Forecasts Still Limited By KENNETH CHANG Published: March 2, 2010

James Harrison-Current Event

When a magnitude 8.8 earthquake occurred on the ocean floor off Chile on Saturday, there were concerns of a repeat of the 2004 disaster in which a giant earthquake off Indonesia generated a tsunami that killed thousands of people hours later in Sri Lanka and India. In Hawaii, the scientists at the Pacific Tsunami Warning center expected a dangerous tsunami and called for the evacuation of Hawaii. But the waves there turned out to be smaller than what was initially expected, causing little or no damage. Resulting in the lack of knowledge of the art and science of tsunami forecasting. The reason for the false alarm was that magnitude 8.8 earthquakes can generate equally large tsunamis. If the earthquake occurs in shallower water, the uplift of the sea floor would displace less water, setting off a smaller tsunami. The seismic signals provide some clues, but not definitive information. Just five years ago, there would have been no midocean tsunami buoys between Chile and Hawaii, and forecasters would have been left guessing at the size of the waves until they hit. With the numerous buoys detecting the tsunami scientist could calculate the height of the wave. Dr. Titov said his model predicted the wave heights fairly accurately. This time, there were no deaths, and the tsunami pushed waters, at most, only a few feet above normal. Officials said the decision to order an evacuation in Hawaii, the first since 1994, was the right one given the uncertainties of the models. With time scientist will be able to be very confident in their predictions especially with the increase in the amount of buoys that are in the water.

Tsunami Forecasting is related to science and is important because it helps save lives. With new technology we will be able to predict whether or not a full-scale evacuations are necessary. Also we are lucky that today we have created these buoy’s that can alert the Pacific Tsunami Warning centers because just imagine if we didn’t know there was a tsunami and had a repeat of the disaster in 2004.

The article was interesting in many ways. I like how the article was easy to read and understand but at times it felt very repetitive. I also found it very interesting because this topic can affect the lives of many. In conclusion I enjoyed reading this article and learn what scientists are doing to forecast tsunamis

2 comments:

  1. James did an excellent job reviewing the article “Quake Finds Tsunami Forecasts Still Limited.” It was very well written and had excellent details. I liked the way he gave examples of earthquakes that led to tsunamis today, and the difference in our knowledge about the strength of the waves five years ago from today. He also explained the reason that the waves we of a very small magnitude.
    Although he gave good details, he could have described better how the buoys can help tell what the size of the waves will be, and how they work. Also he might have told us a little more about why this is so useful.
    Overall James did an excellent job reviewing this article, and it really helped me understand the significance of earthquakes and tsunamis and the devastation they can cause.

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  2. Overall, I believe that James did a wonderful job summarizing "Quake Finds Tsunami Forecasts Still Limited" by Kenneth Chang. It was an informative read and was easy to understand. I also appreciated the details and individual examples regarding the issue of tsunami forecasting and the issues predictions face. I also liked that he listed much information to prove the point that tsunami predictions are still developing in accuracy and efficiency but that the science is developing with new technology introduced by scientists like Dr. Titov. The issue is also very timely and important to many places around the globe today, seeing as tsunamis often devastate countries when they strike. James wrote a well written and interesting summary of the article.

    Because it was very well written, I only have a few suggestions regarding improving the summary. Personally, I was slightly confused regarding the application of the buoys and technology regarding predictions. Maybe their use could be summarized in a clearer way. Also, maybe more detailed information on the buoys and previous methods of tsunami detection could be forward if available.

    James' review was overall very good and quite informative. I learned a lot about tsunamis and earthquakes and the technology developing regarding them. The issue is a very current one as well. This also makes the article both concerning and interesting. Overall, James wrote a wonderful review.

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